OSU Season Prediction

Well, tomorrow it all starts with Youngstown State and the regular season will end in November with Michigan. How will our beloved Buckeyes do? That is an interesting question. A number of fans seem to have a BCS Championship or bust expectation of this squad and I’ll admit, with 20 returning starters, a ton of NFL-level talent, a great big game coach, and a favorable schedule, that should be the goal.

On paper, this team should be favored in every single game this season with the only wild card being the trip to LA to take on USC Sept 13. On paper, this should be a 12-0 regular season squad that rolls into an unprecedented 3rd BCS Championship Game. But games aren’t played on paper and no matter how good a team is, it always takes some luck to compliment the skill to reach those lofty heights.

If we approach this like a betting exercise, the following games are sure things (wins, point spreads may skew things.) Youngstown State, Ohio, Minnesota, Purdue, Northwestern, and Illinois. Expect wins, expect easy wins, expect lots of points scored in each of these games. Of these games, the controversial one to put in this category is Illinois. If you look at the talent Illinois has lost from last year and the revenge factor, it’s going to be a beat down, even on the road.

Games that OSU should win that will be closer than anyone expects include Troy and Michigan. Ultimately, the Bucks will get the W in each case, but it’s doubtful they’ll cover the spread and people will talk about the “struggles” from each of these games. Troy because of the USC post-game let down (win or lose) and Michigan because it’s a rivalry game and these are always tougher than expected.

Finally there are the tossups in order of uncertainty, USC, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan State. USC is pretty straight forward, this is one of the few teams that top to bottom may have more talent than the Buckeyes. They play at night on the road in LA. The reason the Buckeyes might win this game in a word is experience. But it wouldn’t be surprising if this was a loss.

Wisconsin, again away, probably played at night. Camp Randall hasn’t been kind to the Buckeyes during their travels and Wisky always plays the Buckeyes closely. Again, not a terrible surprise if the Badgers pull out a win over a favored visiting Buckeye team.

Penn State and Michigan State are possibly controversial in the tossup category. Penn State has a very good defense and even though the offense is inexperienced, this year might be an upgrade from prior seasons. MSU is no longer as flakey as they once were, they’re improving each game under Mark Dantonio’s leadership and will provide a tougher challenge than most expect.

Of the four tossups, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if OSU lost 2 games. This being said, while I really believe on paper OSU has a good a chance as anyone to make it to the BCS Championship for a third year in a row, an 11-2 season is likely with a win in a non-Championship BCS bowl over, drum roll please, an SEC opponent (winner of the Florida/Georgia game.) Other aspects of the season, the Bucks will beat Michigan, will win their 3rd straight Big Ten title, and get some serious personal award hardware.

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